ADP misses hard – dollar on shaky ground
This morning’s ADP print stunned markets: -33,000 jobs vs. a forecast of +99,000. It’s the first negative reading in over two years and couldn’t come at a worse time for the dollar.
The greenback briefly caught a bid but remains vulnerable. Sentiment is rattled, and the margin for error ahead of Friday's holiday is razor thin.
NFP: one number to rule the week
Risk: skewed heavily to the downside
Markets are bracing for a binary outcome. A second weak print could light the fuse on another leg down for the dollar.
Trade tensions on deck
Trump’s July 9 trade deadline isn’t front-and-center yet, but any unexpected noise could compound dollar pressure post-payrolls. One more thing for markets to worry about.
Technical picture: bearish momentum holds
The gap-down on June 26 (97.712 to 97.522) confirmed a breakdown below the falling wedge. This pattern, typically a bearish continuation signal, suggests the dollar may remain under pressure.
RSI bounced from oversold territory, but the index continues to trade below key resistance.
Levels to watch
USDInd bulls should pay attention to the following potential resistance levels
The Index bears on the other hand may take note of the following potential support levels
Conclusion
A shocking ADP miss, weak technical, and looming payroll data creates a fragile setup for the dollar. If NFP follows suit, the USDInd could accelerate to new lows. The bounce may be over before it truly began.
