- Geopolitical risk drives demand for safe havens like gold and silver
- Brent crude poised to surge if conflict impacts oil supply routes
- Gold could test $3,400–$3,500 amid sustained fear-driven flows
- Silver may rally to decade highs or correct based on sentiment shifts
- Packed economic calendar includes Fed speeches, PMIs, and PCE data
Escalating tension in the Middle East has once again reignited a risk-off tone across global markets. With uncertainty simmering, investors are shifting towards defensive assets and energy commodities amid fears of broader disruption.
The current geopolitical spotlight is dominating price action, offering both opportunities and challenges for traders in Brent crude (BRN), gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD). As conflict concerns persist, volatility is expected to remain elevated.
Events Watchlist:
Brent Oil – BRN
Brent remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. A spike in tensions that threatens shipping lanes or infrastructure could potentially lift Brent higher toward the $80/bbl. On the flip side, signs of de-escalation could lead to a pullback into the $70–$75 region.
Gold – XAUUSD
Gold is proving its safe-haven status amid rising geopolitical risk. Sustained fear-driven flows could push XAUUSD toward the $3,400–$3,500 area. However, if tensions ease, gold may retrace toward 50 – 100-day SMA. Potentially higher intraday volatility driven by geopolitical news headlines is to be expected.
Silver – XAGUSD
Silver remains highly responsive to shifting market sentiment. In the event of heightened geopolitical escalation, XAGUSD could potentially rally toward its recent high (~37.3 – highest level since 2012). However, if tensions ease and broader sentiment stabilizes, a correction to 21-day SMA may potentially follow.
Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due this week:
Monday June 23 2025
- JP225: Japan June PMIs
- SG20: Singapore May Inflation
- EU50: Eurozone June PMIs, Bond Auctions
- UK100: UK June PMIs
- US500: June PMIs, May Existing Home Sales; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, NY Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Kugler – Speeches
Tuesday June 24 2025
- NZ: New Zealand May Balance of Trade
- JP225: BoJ Summary of Opinions, 20-Year JGB Auction
- CN50: China National People's Congress Standing Committee
- GER40: Germany June Ifo Business Climate
- UK100: UK 10-Year Index-linked Gilt Auction, BoE Governor Bailey testifies before Upper House
- CA: Canada May Inflation Rate YoY
- US500: US June 20 API Crude Oil Stock Change, Fed Chair Powell testifies before House
- “Summer Davos” meeting, through June 26, Chinese Premier Li Qiang – Speech
Wednesday June 25 2025
- JP225: Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e June 21, Stock Investment by Foreigners w/e June 21
- CN50: China National People's Congress Standing Committee
- AU200: Australia May Monthly CPI Indicator
- FRA40: France June Consumer Confidence
- UK100: UK 15-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
- SPN35: Spain May PPI
- US500: US May New Home Sales
- WTI: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change w/e June 20
Thursday June 26 2025
- JP225: Japan June Tokyo CPI, May Retail Sales, May Unemployment Rate
- CN50: China National People's Congress Standing Committee
- EU50: ECB General Council Meeting, June Economic Sentiment Index
- GER40: Germany July GfK Consumer Confidence
- US500: May Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims w/e June 20, Richmond Fed President Barkin and Cleveland Fed President Hammack – Speeches
- MX: Mexico Interest Rate Decision
- NG: EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change w/e June 20
Friday June 27 2025
- CN50: CN May Industrial Profits (YTD)
- EU50: June Economic, Industrial and Services Sentiment, Consumer Inflation Expectations
- FRA40: France June Inflation Rate, May PPI
- SPN35: Spain June Inflation Rate, May Retail Sales
- US500: May PCE Price Index, Cleveland Fed President Hammack – Speech, Annual Bank Stress Test Results
- CA: Canada April GDP
- Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count w/e June 27
Sunday June 29 2025
- JP225: Japan May Industrial Production
