XAUUSD dips, BRN tests key levels amid market shift

• Gold nears third weekly drop despite technical aid
• Fed rate cut likelihood for July sharply reduced
• Safe-haven demand dips; gold’s long-term outlook firm
• Brent tests 21-day support amid US-Iran uncertainty
• Soft global demand keeps Brent biased downward

Gold is poised for its third weekly decline in the past four weeks, despite finding support around its 50-day moving average.

Market expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted significantly, with the odds for a July cut dropping from 70% to 40%, pushing potential easing out to September.

Although safe-haven demand has slightly diminished following reduced trade tariffs between major economies, gold’s broader multi-year uptrend should remain intact, driven by consistent central bank purchases and increased inflows into bullion-backed ETFs.

Meanwhile, Brent crude is testing crucial support at its 21-day simple moving average.

Prices briefly surged due to widening gaps in US-Iran nuclear talks, as a potential deal could introduce more oil supply into markets already adjusting to recent OPEC+ output increases.

With global demand expected to remain subdued despite easing trade tensions, Brent is likely to trade in the lower-$60 range, maintaining a downward bias in the near term.